高速公路高填方路基沉降变形数据拟合与预测研究

Study on Fitting and Prediction of Settlement Deformation Data of High Fill Roadbed in Expressway

为了更好地研究高填方路基沉降发展的动态过程和走势,依托武汉天河机场第二通道高速公路S2标段典型断面K4+860处长达186 d的实测数据,分别利用双曲线拟合法、指数曲线拟合法和Asaoka法三种曲线拟合方法,每种曲线拟合法分为3种工况,共得到9个沉陷拟合曲线模型。通过与实测数据关联度和方差的分析,得出指数曲线拟合在120<t<160的情况下,拟合精度最高。并利用FLAC^(3D)建立数值模拟模型,将得到的沉降曲线与指数曲线拟合模型(120<t<160)和实测曲线对比,结果表明两者均可以较好地反映出路基沉降的动态过程。总体上,在沉降发生初期,利用数值模拟法进行拟合预计更为合适,而其它阶段指数曲线拟合模型更为准确。

In order to study the dynamic process and trend of the development of high embankment subsidence,this paper relies on the measured data of 1864 days of typical section K4 + 860 of S2 section of Wuhan Tianhe Airport second channel expressway,The exponential curve fitting method and the Asaoka method. Each curve fitting method is divided into three kinds of working conditions,and nine subsidence curve models are obtained. By analyzing the correlation degree and variance of the measured data,it is concluded that the exponential curve is fitted with the highest accuracy when 120 < t < 160.(120< t < 160) and the measured curve are compared. The results show that both of them can reflect the dynamic process of roadbed settlement. In general,it is more appropriate to use the numerical simulation method to fit the prediction at the beginning of the settlement,and the other stage exponential curve fitting model is more accurate.