固定资本投入对经济增长贡献的部门差异与时变特征

Analysis on Contribution Differences and Time-varying Characters of Capital Investment on Economic Growth——Evidence from Henan Province

本文以河南省为例,测算了信贷资金和自筹资金对经济增长的贡献度,并运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR模型)对其时变特征进行实证研究。结果表明:与自筹资金相比,信贷资金投入对经济增长的推动作用较弱,且其对经济增长影响主要体现在短期,而自筹资金对经济增长的影响较强且更长久和持续;进一步研究还发现,信贷资金对经济增长的影响相对稳定,而自筹资金对经济增长贡献的波动性较大,时变特征明显。当前应在稳定信贷资金投入规模的同时,提高资金使用效率,同时,进一步简政放权,拓宽企业自筹资金渠道,以提升企业自主投资能力,促进经济战略转型。

The infrastructure and fixed asset investment are still very important for china's economic growth.Based on TVP-VAR model,this paper calculates the contribution of different sector input and analyzes the time-varying characters.The results show that,although bank loans contribute less on economic growth comparing to enterprise self-financing,it is more stable.However,the influences of both two types of capital mainly reflect in the short term.Nowadays, under the new normal economic background, the government should stable the input of bank loans and take more concerns on enterprises' self-financing in order to improve its' capacity of investment.Only could this enhance economic endogenous driving forces and complete the economic strategic transition.