基于情景构建的危化品事故应急疏散模拟研究

A scenario construction based study on emergency evacuation in hazardous chemicals accident

为有效控制危化品企业的事故风险,预防重大火灾爆炸事故发生,以天津港"8·12"特别重大火灾爆炸事故为例,建立贝叶斯与元胞自动机(CA)耦合模型,模拟重建事故情景,分析事故各演变环节,探寻事故演化规律,找到该类危化品港口储存行业潜在事故隐患。依据蚁群算法(ACO)建立应急疏散模型,在Matlab平台上模拟仿真受灾最严重小区的居民疏散情况,找到最佳疏散路径,计算得出将周边居民、相关人员疏散到安全区域的响应时间点。结果表明:依据计算机模拟仿真结果规划应急疏散路径,能够提高应急疏散的效率,减少事故的影响。

In order to effectively control the accident risk in hazardous chemicals enterprises and prevent hazardous chemicals fires and explosions involving hazardous chemicals,a Bayesian and CA coupling model was built based on the data on the ＂ 8·12＂ special fire and explosion accident in Tianjin Port. The accident scenarios were simulated and reconstructed. All aspects of the evolution of the accident were analyzed. The law of accident evolution was explored. Hidden dangers of potential accidents in the storage industry of hazardous chemicals were identified. Based on the ACO,an emergency evacuation model was built to simulate the evacuation of residents in the worst affected communities on the Matlab platform. The best evacuation route was identified. The response time point was calculated for evacuating the surrounding residents and related personnel to the safe area. The results show that according to the results of computer simulation,emergency evacuation routes can be planned,which can improve the efficiency of emergency evacuation could be improved and the accidents impact could be reduced by planning the emergency evacuation routes according to the results of the computer simulation.