中国产业结构调整的影响因素分析——基于37个细分行业的实证研究

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Industrial Structural Change—An Empirical Study Based on China's 37 Industries

在经济增速换挡、"供给侧结构性改革"背景下,本文采用涵盖中国三次产业内部37个细分行业1981年到2010年的面板数据,建立短期和长期模型,定量分析影响产业结构调整的供给因素和需求因素。研究发现:供给方面,生产率的提高在短期和长期都是产业扩张的动力,资本劳动比的提高只在短期内具有正向影响;需求方面,最终需求对产业有拉动作用,其中,国内消费需求的影响最大,出口次之,投资的影响最小,国内外消费需求具有短期和长期影响,投资需求只有短期影响。基于实证研究结果本文提出政策建议:应当创造和维护有利于全社会创新的制度体系,让科技创新在产业结构调整中发挥重要作用;提高产业结构调整对需求变化的适应性,鼓励新兴服务业的发展,并完善相关监管制度。

In the context of the slowing down of the economic growth rate and ＂structural reform of supply＂, this paper establishes short-term and long-term regression model using China＇s 37 detailed industries panel data from 1981 to 2010, and investigating supply-side and demand-side factors that influence the industrial structural change. The research results show that the increase in productivity is an important driving force of industry＇s expansion in both short and long run, and the increasing capital-labor ratio only has positive effects on industry＇s expansion in the short run and no significant effects in the long run. Besides the supply-side factors, the final demands also play an important role in industrial structure change. To be specific, the domestic consumption has the larger positive effects compared to exports and capital formation, and the domestic and foreign consumptions have both short-term and long term effects, and finally, capital formation only has short-term effects. This paper advocates a regulatory and legal system that protecting and encouraging innovation. It also encourages the development of new service industries, and improvement on adaptability of the adjustment of industrial structure to changes in demand.