“污染天堂”假说视角下长江经济带进出口贸易与碳排放的关系研究

Research on relationship between trade and carbon emissions of Yangtze River economic belt based on the perspective of “pollution haven” hypothesis

依托"污染天堂"假说,选取长江经济带9个省份2004—2013年二氧化碳排放量为测度指标,构建了面板模型来探讨长江经济带进出口贸易和二氧化碳排放的相关关系。研究结果表明:贸易开放的结构效应和技术效应有利于改善空气污染情况,减少碳总体排放量,规模效应会导致长江经济带碳排放增加,环境恶化;"污染天堂"假说在长江下游地区不成立,进出口贸易对碳排放的长期效应超过短期效应,总体上抑制碳排放量增加,改善大气污染情况;长江上、中游地区"污染天堂"假说成立,进出口贸易会导致长江中、上游地区环境遭到破坏,加剧碳排放的增长。因此,必须从转变经济增长方式、优化对外贸易结构等方面促进长江经济带进出口贸易与碳排放的协调发展。

This paper uses carbon dioxide emissions of nine provinces in 2004--2013 as measure index and builds panel model relying on ＂pollution haven＂ hypothesis to explore the relationship between trade and carbon emissions along the Yangtze River economic belt. The results suggest that the structure effect and technical effect of trade will be beneficial to improvement of air pollution and the reduction of carbon emission, while Scale Effect will increase carbon emissions and deteriorate the environment along the Yangtze River economic belt; ＂Pollution Haven＂ hy- pothesis is not available in the upper Yangtze fiver region, because import and export trade makes more long-term effects than short-term effects, which reduces carbon emissions and improves air pollution; ＂Pollution Haven＂ hy- pothesis exists in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river, import and export trade will gravate carbon emissions. Thus, we must transform the mode of economic port and export in order to promote coordinated development between trade River economic belt. damage the air and ag- growth and optimize the structure of im- and carbon emissions along the Yangtze