中国对美国真实比较优势研究——基于增加值视角

Study on China's true comparative advantage to the United State:based on the value-added trade

采用增加值贸易核算方法,根据价值来源及最终吸收地将1995—2011年中国对美国出口总额进行分解,并据此重新测算中国对美国出口的贸易利得。在此基础上,构建TCA指数,对中国出口美国各行业的真实比较优势进行衡量和比较。研究结果表明:1995—2011年,在中国对美国总出口中,国内增加值占比不断下降,通过中间产品进口所隐含的国外增加值比重逐渐上升。研究证实中国对美国的真实出口规模及贸易利得不仅被严重高估,并且随着进口中间品比重增长,其高估程度呈现出逐渐上升的趋势。

This paper provides an accounting method based on value-added trade to break China＇s gross exports to the United State from 1995 to 2011 into value-added sources and destinations, and then re-compute China＇s trade profits to the United State. On this basis, By design True Comparative Advantage （TCA） index, this paper meas- ures and compares China＇s True Comparative Advantage to the United States at the sector level. Research indicates ： from 1995 to 2011, China＇s total exports to the United States, the proportion of domestic value-added declining, the proportion of foreign value-added implied by the import of intermediate products is gradually increasing, which veri- fy the real exports scale and trade profits are not only seriously overestimated, but with the proportion of imports of intermediate goods growth. The degree of its overestimation showed a gradual upward trend. In addition, Textile, leather and other traditional industries has been real comparative advantage industry of China＇s exports to the United States. But its competitiveness slightly decreases; while the industry of the machinery, transportation equipment and other industries although as the industry of real disadvantage, there is a great gap with the United States, but with an obviously promotion.