基于背景值和初值改进的灰色Verhulst模型

Grey Verhulst Model Improvement Based on Background Value and Initial Value

针对灰色Verhulst模型的理论缺陷,在优化背景值的基础上,将X(1)的第n个分量作为灰色Verhulst模型的初始条件,改进灰色Verhulst模型.应用实例表明,在一定程度上,改进的灰色Verhulst模型消除了灰色Verhulst模型在背景值获取和初值选取时造成的误差,具有较高的模拟精度.

For the theoretical defect of grey Verhulst model,this article proposes that nth component of X（1）be the initial condition based on the optimized background value,and establishes an improved grey Verhulst model based on the background value and initial value.Application shows that this improved grey Verhult model can abolish the error caused by selection in the background value and initial value,and has the higher simulation precision.