2016～2115年拉萨市墨竹工卡县日多镇高原鼠兔(Ochotona curzoniae)洞穴冬季气温变化趋势预测

Predicting winter temperature trends in the burrows of the Ochotona Curzoniae from year 2016～2115 at Rutok, Medrokonggar Country

高原鼠兔作为青藏高原特有小型穴居哺乳动物,其洞穴气温变化可能是青藏高原变暖响应的指示者之一。文章以高原鼠兔的洞穴气温变化作为研究对象,运用Y=BT(mean)+0.2*(Year-x)模型,模拟并预测了青藏高原中部地区西藏拉萨市墨竹工卡县日多镇(平均海拔4684m±180SD)2016~2115年高原鼠兔洞穴冬季气温变化趋势,提出在当前影响气温变化因素不变的前提下,未来60多年,日多地区冬季平均气温将上升至零度左右。

Various factors combine in causing degradation and increasing temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. The Plateau pika （Ochotona Curzoniae） is a small burrowing mammal, endemic to the Tibetan Plateau. The burrow temperature of the plateau pika can be one of the indicators of increasing temperature of the plateau ecosystem. In order to study the temperatures in the pika burrows, measurements of pika burrows taken at Rutok （Elevation range 4684±180SD） in winter of 2016, were applied to the Model Y=BT （mean） ＋ 0.2＊ （year-x） for prediction of winter temperature changes from 2016 to 2115. The result show that the mean borrow temperature can reach 0℃ in the next 60 years if the influential factors of temperature change at present were unchanged.