摘要
文章运用ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验等计量方法,对西藏1996-2016年旅游总收入与GDP时间序列数据进行实证分析,西藏旅游业发展与经济增长之间确实存在长期协整关系,且其两者间的Granger因果关系会因滞后期的不同而存在差异,西藏经济增长对旅游总收入所带来的短期影响更为突出。
By using ADF Test, Co-integration Test, Error Correction Model and Granger Test of Causality, an empirical analysis has been done on the total income of Tibet＇s tourism in 1996-2016 and the time series data of GDP in Tibet. There is indeed a long-term co-integration relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Tibet. And the Granger causality between them will be different due to the different duration of lag phases, and the short-term effect of Tibet＇ s economic growth on the total tourism income is more outstanding.
基金
2013年度国家社会科学基金一般项目"青海藏区重要生态功能区保护和建设问题研究"阶段性成果
项目号:13XJY005
