二十年来西方保险理论的演变及其倾向

Evolution of Western Insurance Theories and Their Trends in the Past Two Decades

近二十年来,西方保险理论研究有了长足的发展,认真分析和梳理其演进的特征和理论倾向,对于我国保险理论研究和保险业发展都具有重要的指导价值。使用修正的统计模型对1997~2016年间美国经济评论等五种主要经济期刊收录的318篇保险类文献和风险与保险杂志(Journal of Risk and Insurance)收录的810篇文献进行分析,结果显示:20多年来保险类论文在经济期刊全部论文中的比例呈现上升趋势,2012~2016年的经济类论文总数相比于1997~2001年增加了24%,而保险类论文的数量增幅达到148%。以美国为代表的西方保险理论的研究领域和内容不断在深度和广度拓展;保险理论研究团队的规模、水平逐步提高,研究范式越来越规范;同时西方保险理论的演进及其倾向与保险业发展、结构调整和监管政策的变化保持高度的一致性。从未来保险理论演进的趋势看,健康保险研究领域有可能成为重要的研究方向和热点。

In the past 20 years,insurance theoretical research in western countries has made great progress. Analyzing and sorting out its evolution features and theoretical tendency has an important guiding value for the insurance theory research and insurance sector development in China. Using a correction model,we analyzed all 318 insurance literature published in the top five US economic journals and all 810 literature published in Journal of Risk and Insurance during 1997-2016. The results showed that： for the past 20 years,the proportion of insurance papers in all economic journals was on the rise. The total number of economic papers published in 2012-2016 increased by24% compared to 1997-2001,while the number of insurance papers increased by 148%. The research fields and contents of western insurance theories had been expanding in depth and breadth. The size and level of the research teams had gradually improved and the research paradigms had become more and more standardized. The evolution of insurance theory was in line with the development,structural readjustment and regulatory change of the insurance sector. As for the future evolution trend of insurance research,health insurance might become the focus of research.