供给侧改革背景下保险业发展模式检验:经济驱动还是风险驱动——基于面板VAR模型的实证研究

Testing the Development Pattern of Insurance Industry under the Background of Reform on the Supply Side: Driven by Income or Risk?——An Empirical Study Based on the Panel VAR Model

本文搜集2004~2015年的省级面板数据,通过熵权法构建了中国各个省份历年的风险指数,在此基础上建立了以"经济增长"、"保险需求"、"保险职能"以及"风险密度"为内生变量的面板向量自回归模型,并通过使用脉冲响应函数、预测误差的方差分解和面板格兰杰因果检验对我国长期以来保险业的发展模式进行了检验,得到如下结论:我国保险业的发展长期以来靠经济驱动,而非风险驱动,经济增长对保险需求的促进作用远远大于风险增加对保险需求的促进作用;进一步研究发现,造成这种现象的原因很可能是由于保险业在风险补偿上存在较为明显的职能缺位,保险的补偿职能与地区的风险状况不匹配,未能实现有效供给,从而保险行业的供给侧改革势在必行。进一步地,我们比较了保险业发展模式的区域差异,发现相比较中西部地区,东部地区保险业的经济驱动程度较低,而风险驱动程度较高,这很可能是因为东部地区的保险业职能缺位情况相对较轻。本文的研究对供给侧改革在保险行业的开展具有启示意义,欲使我国成为保险强国,需根据风险状况加强供给侧的有效供给。

We employed the entropy weighted method to build a risk index for each province in China on the basis of the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2015,set up a PVAR system which contained endogenous variables such as economic growth,demands of insurance,functions of insurance and risk density,and then tested the long-term development pattern of the insurance industry in China through the methods of impulse-response function,forecast error variance decomposition and panel Granger Causality test. We found that the insurance industry was driven by income but not risk,which meant that the insurance demands were driven by economic growth far more than by risk density. Further study showed that this phenomenon might result from the insurance industry＇s deficiency at risk compensation,which meant the insurance compensation function didn＇t match with the risk status of different regions. This indicated that the insurance industry didn＇t provide the effective supply,and the supply side reform of industry was imperative. Then the paper studied regional differences of the insurance industry＇s development patterns. It was found that,in comparison with the central and western parts of China,the insurance industry in eastern China showed a relative inclination to the risk-driven pattern rather than the income-driven pattern,presumably due to the lesser functional absence of the industry there. This article is enlightening on how the insurance industry is to carry out the supply-side reform. The insurance industry should increase its effective supply in line with the risk status if we want to become a big insurance power.