农业保险对农户消费和效用的影响——兼论农业保险对反贫困的意义

The Effect of Agricultural Insurance on Farmer's Consumption and Utility——The significance of agricultural insurance to anti-poverty

本文首先建立引入农业风险冲击和农业保险的基本模型,基于此引入农业保险投资和农业保险补贴,通过数值模拟比较三种农险模式对农民终身效用的影响。其次,运用2010~2015的分省面板数据来检验不同农业保险模式对农户消费和效用的影响。研究发现:农业保险补贴对农民终身效用的提高大于农业保险,农业保险投资提高农民终身效用的水平大于农业保险补贴;基于面板数据工具变量方法表明农业保险保费、赔付和补贴在一定程度上都可以提高农民消费和HDI(人类发展指数);采用面板门槛回归模型表明只有当农民消费和HDI的发展超过一定的门槛值以后,农业保险保费、赔付和补贴对农民消费和HDI的影响才会变为正相关,农业保险的反贫困效应才能发挥功效。

Firstly,this article established the basic agricultural risk model and agricultural insurance model with agricultural insurance investments and agricultural insurance subsidies being integrated into them. By the method of numerical simulation,we compared three models＇ effects to the lifelong utility of farmers. Secondly,the utility of farmers of different agricultural insurance modes was tested by using the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2015.The study found that agricultural insurance subsidy increased the lifetime utility of farmers greater than the agricultural insurance,and agricultural insurance investments increased the lifetime utility of the farmers greater than agricultural insurance subsidies. Based on the panel data instrumental variable method,agricultural insurance premiums,claim payments and subsidy all improved the consumption of farmers and the HDI（ human development index） to some extent. The panel threshold regression model showed that only when farmers＇ consumption and HDI increased beyond a certain threshold value,would the effects of agricultural insurance premium,claim payments,and subsidies to farmers＇ consumption and HDI become positively correlated,and in turn,the anti-poverty effect of agricultural insurance would work.