我国生猪价格保险中的逆选择分析

Adverse Selection in Hog Price Index Insurance in China

生猪价格指数保险是生猪养殖业防范价格风险、稳定生产的重要工具。本文在理论分析的基础上,使用我国生猪价格指数保险市场的投保数据,对该市场是否存在逆选择现象进行了实证研究。首先建立Tobit模型来刻画投保选择与各经济变量之间的关系,根据模型得出在市场条件下,投保人选择投保的猪粮比参照值。计算市场猪粮比的相对溢额,并与各期的投保总量进行Granger因果检验。结果显示北京地区的生猪价格指数保险市场不存在逆选择现象,而山东和辽宁由于集中投保,同样无法检验出逆选择现象的存在。基于上述结果,本文认为集中投保、政策性保险等因素使该保险市场不存在逆选择,这有利于保险公司更好地管理市场价格风险。

The hog price index insurance is an important tool of preventing pricing risk and stabilizing production in livestock industry. In this paper,based on theoretical analysis,we carried out the empirical research on the existence of adverse selection using insurance data in this market. We established Tobit regression of the relationship between insurance choice and economic variables,and obtained the relative value of price index on the policy-holder＇s choice under market conditions. Then we calculated the Granger causality between the surplus of the price index and the amount of insured for each period. The results of Beijing area suggested that there was no adverse selection in this insurance market. Data from Shandong and Liaoning did not prove the existence of adverse selection phenomenon due to high concentration of applications. Based on these results,this paper argued that there was no adverse selection in the market of hog price index insurance due to the centralized purchasing of insurance,as well as policy sponsorship,which is an advantage from the view of insurance companies.