经济作物收入保险及其定价研究——以陕西苹果为例

Analysis of the Cash Crop Revenue Insurance and Its Pricing——Take Shaanxi Apples as an Example

农作物收入保险(1)具有同时覆盖产量风险和价格风险的特性,已成为各国农业保险的主导产品态势。我国收入保险试点工作刚刚起步,是否需要深入开展收入保险试点工作以及应如何开展是本文主要探讨的问题。经济作物收入保险具有明显的区域特征。作为国内最大的苹果产地,陕西省苹果种植面临着较高的产量风险和价格风险,种植收入具有较大的波动性,对收入保险有一定的潜在需求。在拟合产量和价格分布的基础上,本文采用Copula函数和蒙特卡洛方法进行费率厘定。结果表明:陕西省苹果产量和价格存在负相关性,在70%~95%的保障水平下,收入保险纯费率可在12%~19%之间。以陕西苹果为例,研究经济作物收入保险及其定价,对其他苹果主产区的收入保险乃至经济作物收入保险的试点与推广,具有参考意义。

Agricultural revenue insurance has become the main trend of agricultural insurance in every country due to its characteristics of covering production risk and price risk simultaneously.The pilot work of China＇s cash crop revenue insurance has just started,so whether it is necessary to carry on with the pilot work of revenue insurance and how to carry out this work are discussed in this paper.Cash crop revenue insurance has obvious regional characteristics.As the biggest apple planting region in China,Shaanxi Province is facing with high yield perils and price risks,and its income from apple planting has a greater volatility,thus it has a potential demand for the revenue insurance.Premium rates under revenue and yield insurance were simulated through the Copula method and Monte Carlo method in the paper.Results indicated that there was a negative correlation between Shaanxi apple yield and price,which is to say,under the 70%-95% guarantee level,the pure rate of the apple revenue insurance is between 12% and 19%.This paper has an important reference towards the pilots and popularization of revenue insurance and crop revenue insurance in other main apple planting places.