昆明市近50a降水变化特征分析

ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION CHANGE CHARACTERISTICSIN OF KUNMING IN RECENT 50 YEARS

基于昆明市1967~2016年逐日降水资料,采用M-K突变检验、小波分析法和降水相对变率等方法对昆明市降水变化特征进行分析。结果表明:昆明市年降水量整体上呈减少趋势,并表现出"增加-减少-增加-减少-增加"的年际波动变化;年降水量存在三个突变点,且年降水量呈现15 a和34 a的周期变化;冬季降水量呈增加趋势,其它3季(春、夏、秋)降水量逐渐减少;不同季节降水量相对变率介于21.71%~51.76%之间,冬、春季降水量相对变率较大,容易发生干旱灾害;小雨、中雨年降水日数呈现减少趋势,大雨、暴雨年降水日数有增多趋势且有明显年际波动变化。

Based on the precipitation data of Kunming from 1967 to 2016, the characteristics of precipitation change in Kunming were analyzed byM - K mutation test, wavelet analysis method and precipitation relative variable ratio. The results showed that： the annual precipitation in Kunming was decreasing in the whole, and showed the annual change of ＂increase - decrease - increase - decrease - increase＂ ; there are three mutation points in annual precipitation, and the annual precipitation shows periods of 15a and 34a; the precipitation in winter is increasing, and the precipitation in the other three seasons （ spring, summer and autumn） is gradually decreasing; the relative variability of precipitation in different seasons is between 21.71% and 51.76%, the relative variability of precipitation in winter and spring is relatively large, which is prone to drought disaster; the number of sprinkle days and moderate rain days has a tendency to decrease, and the number of precipitation days in heavy rain and rainstorm is increasing and there are obvious annual changes.