摘要
基于昆明市1967~2016年逐日降水资料,采用M-K突变检验、小波分析法和降水相对变率等方法对昆明市降水变化特征进行分析。结果表明:昆明市年降水量整体上呈减少趋势,并表现出"增加-减少-增加-减少-增加"的年际波动变化;年降水量存在三个突变点,且年降水量呈现15 a和34 a的周期变化;冬季降水量呈增加趋势,其它3季(春、夏、秋)降水量逐渐减少;不同季节降水量相对变率介于21.71%~51.76%之间,冬、春季降水量相对变率较大,容易发生干旱灾害;小雨、中雨年降水日数呈现减少趋势,大雨、暴雨年降水日数有增多趋势且有明显年际波动变化。
Based on the precipitation data of Kunming from 1967 to 2016, the characteristics of precipitation change in Kunming were analyzed byM - K mutation test, wavelet analysis method and precipitation relative variable ratio. The results showed that: the annual precipitation in Kunming was decreasing in the whole, and showed the annual change of "increase - decrease - increase - decrease - increase" ; there are three mutation points in annual precipitation, and the annual precipitation shows periods of 15a and 34a; the precipitation in winter is increasing, and the precipitation in the other three seasons ( spring, summer and autumn) is gradually decreasing; the relative variability of precipitation in different seasons is between 21.71% and 51.76%, the relative variability of precipitation in winter and spring is relatively large, which is prone to drought disaster; the number of sprinkle days and moderate rain days has a tendency to decrease, and the number of precipitation days in heavy rain and rainstorm is increasing and there are obvious annual changes.
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2017年第6期54-61,共8页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"云南高原滇中城市群对区域降水的影响研究"(41465001)
云南省大学生创新创业项目"滇中城市群降水特征分析"共同资助
关键词
昆明市
降水
特征
M—K突变检验
小波分析法
Kunming
precipitation
Features
M - K mutation test
wavelet analysis method