线上线下价格指数的互动:替代还是整合?

The Interaction of Online and Offline Price Indices: Substitution or Integration?

基于大数据平台的阿里巴巴网购核心商品价格指数(aSPI-core)一经推出,其与线下的居民消费价格指数(CPI)之间关系逐渐成为人们讨论的热点话题。判断两个指数之间是否存在替代或整合关系,应着重解决aSPI-core和CPI的关联性和收敛性问题。本文以2011年2月至2015年12月之间时间序列数据为样本开展实证分析。实证结果表明,在关联性上,长期层面CPI对宏观经济物价变动的敏感程度要强于aSPI-core,短期层面两个指数之间的瞬时影响效应并不明显,因此直接使用aSPI-core替代CPI变得不可能。在收敛性上,在短期内,由于消费品和服务本身的特性、政策限制等因素的差异性,使得aSPI-core和CPI所属分类的价格呈现不同程度的收敛特征,相互替代成为不可能,更多表现出一种互补性;在长期内,随着网络服务模式的不断推陈出新以及政策限制的逐渐消除,aSPI-core和CPI将逐步由互补迈向整合。

Once the aSPI-core of online shopping based on big data platform has been launched,its relationship with offline consumer price index（ CPI） has become a hot topic of discussion. To determine whether there is a substitution or integration relationship between the two indices,the association and convergence of aSPI-core and CPI should be addressed. In this paper,we use data from February 2011 to December 2015 to carry out empirical analysis,the results show that in terms of association,the long-term CPI is more sensitive to macroeconomic price changes than the aSPI-core,the effect of instantaneous impact between them is not obvious in the short term,so it become impossible to replace the CPI directly with aSPI-core. In convergence,in the short term,due to the differences in the characteristics of consumer goods and services,policy restrictions and other factors,the prices of the categories belonging to aSPI-core and CPI show different degrees of convergence characteristics,making substitution become impossible and showing more of a complementarity. In the long term,aSPI-core and CPI will gradually move toward integration from complementarity with the continuous innovation of network service models and the gradual elimination of policy restrictions.