我国不同时期财政政策的产业结构优化效应

The Industrial Structure Optimization Effects of China's Fiscal Policies in Different Periods

随着全球经济周期明显加快,日益复杂的外部经济环境导致了财政政策对产业结构优化在不同时期产生差异性影响,以往常参数计量模型研究的财政政策在产业结构调整中长期不变的调控效果严重缺乏实际意义。基于此,本文构建了带有时变转换概率的因子扩展马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型,并采用两步骤MLE估计方法研究了不同时期我国财政政策对产业结构优化的动态效应,研究结果发现:(1)在经济萧条时期,以减少财政支出为主要操作工具、增加税收为辅的紧缩型财政政策,结合提高教育支出占比、降低投资性支出占比、降低营业税占比、提高增值税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。(2)在经济繁荣时期,以减少税收为主要操作工具、增加财政支出为辅的宽松型财政政策,结合提高科技支出占比、降低投资性支出占比、提高增值税占比、降低消费税占比的财政政策操作组合,更利于产业结构优化。

With the significantly accelerating global economic cycle, increasingly complex external economic environment has resulted in different effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization in different periods, but the usual conclusion that fiscal policies play a fixed effect on the industrial structure adjustment by using constant parameter model is lack of economic meaning. Therefore, in this paper, we construct a factor-extension Markov switching VAR with time varying transition probabilities, and use the two step MLE estimation method to study the dynamic effects of China＇s fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization in different periods. It is found that, firstly, in the regime of economic recession, tight fiscal policy by decreasing fiscal expenditure as the main instrument and increasing tax as the supplement, combined by increasing the proportion of education expenditure, decreasing the proportion of investment expenditure, decreasing the proportion of business tax, and increasing the proportion of value-added tax, is beneficial to promoting industrial structure optimization. Secondly, in the regime of economic prosperity, easy fiscal policy by decreasing tax as the main instrument and increasing fiscal expenditure as the supplement, combined by increasing the proportion of technology expenditure, decreasing the proportion of investment expenditure, increasing the proportion of value-added tax, and decreasing the proportion of consumption tax, is beneficial to promoting industrial structure optimization.