摘要
居民纺织纤维消费主要来自天然纤维和化学纤维,其中,棉花是居民衣着等纤维消费的重要组成部分,棉花用量占天然纤维的八成以上,满足国人的消费需求是中国棉花安全的底线,科学研判未来中国居民的棉花需求量对制定相关产业政策具有重要意义。针对棉纤维消费统计数据缺乏的问题,根据国内外纺织纤维消费趋势和结构特征,采用情景分析方法,预测得出在中等发展速度下,2020年满足中国居民纤维消费的棉花需求量在500万t左右。为有效满足这一需求,未来中国需稳定棉花生产,在政策、技术推广和机械应用等方面加强扶持,防止棉花生产持续萎缩。
Residents＇ consumption of textile fibers mainly comes from natural fibers and chemical fibers,among which, cotton is an important part of residents＇ clothes consumption of fiber and so on. The cotton consumption accounts for more than 80 percent of natural fibers, and it is the bottom line of China＇s cotton security to meet the consumer demand of China. Scientifically judging the demand of China＇s residents for cotton in the future is of great significance to policy-making for cotton industry. Aiming at the lack of statistical data of cotton demand, according to the consumption trend and structure characteristics of textile fibers at home and abroad and using scenario analysis, this study predicted that China＇s cotton demand of fiber consumption was about five million tons in 2020, under moderate growth of per capita consumption of textile fibers. In order to effectively meet this demand, China needs to stabilize its cotton production in the future and step up its supports in policies, technology promotion and mechanical application so as to prevent the cotton production from continuously shrinking.
出处
《农业展望》
2018年第1期74-77,93,共5页
Agricultural Outlook
关键词
纺织纤维
棉花
需求展望
情景分析
textile fiber
cotton
demand outlook
scenario analysis
