黑龙江省奶牛养殖效益影响因素分析

Analysis of influence factors for cow breeding in Heilongjiang Province

奶牛养殖户亟需了解影响奶牛养殖效益的因素,并据此调整设计养殖策略。本文运用多元线性回归分析方法对2004—2014年黑龙江省大、中、小3种规模奶牛养殖效益及其影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：原料乳产值对大、中、小3种规模奶牛养殖利润影响值分别为1.001、0.491和0.966,副产品产值对3种养殖规模利润影响值分别为0.948、2.795和1.110,人工成本影响值分别为-1.047、-2.053和-1.001;饲料费用、固定资产折旧的变动能够引起小、大两种养殖规模利润的变动,其中饲料费用的影响值分别为-0.949、-0.993,固定资产折旧影响值分别为-0.997、-1.118;医疗维护费、其他综合费的变动只能引起大规模养殖利润的变动,影响值分别为-0.973、-1.003。从各种影响因素入手,提出提高奶牛养殖效益的建议。

Dairy farmers need to understand the factors affecting the effectiveness of dairy farming and adjust the strategies of cow breeding.In this paper,the cost and benefit data of dairy cattle breeding were selected in Heilongjiang Province from 2004 to 2014.By multiple linear regression analysis,the results showed that the influence of raw milk output was 1.001,0.491 and 0.966,respectively on the small,medium and big-scale cow breeding profit.Deputy production effects of 3 scale farming profits were 0.948,2.7957 and 1.110,respectively.Changing feed and PPE depreciation could cause profit change for small-scale and big-scale cow breeding.The values of influence were -0.949,-0.993,-0.997 and-1.118,and health care cost and other charges only cause large-scale profit change,whose influence is 0.973 and -1.003,based on various influencing factors.Some suggestions are put forward to improve the benefit of dairy cattle breeding.