广东省水资源短缺指数构建与驱动测度——基于物元关联模型

Construction of Water Shortage Index in Guangdong Province and Its Driving Factors——Based on Matter-Element Theory and Correlation Function

以区域水资源短缺程度为视角,运用物元可拓理论与关联函数建立水资源短缺指数测度模型,融合区域水资源禀赋、供需、开发利用和社会状态等要素构建其指数复合测度体系,对广东省水资源短缺指数分别进行纵向时序、横向截面和未来趋势的多维分析。结果表明:广东省水资源短缺指数于2004—2015年从"较差"状态到"中等"状态再到"较好"状态,整体上呈逐步好转的态势,但其指数等级均处于"安全"状态下,后期发展形式依然严峻;全省21地市水资源短缺指数已形成"三大梯度",其中多处于"中等"与"较好"状态,同时水资源短缺指数具有相对显著的"都市联动效应",而其指数变动趋势则呈现分布相对离散的特点;在未来全省水资源短缺指数保持趋于稳定的情况下,强化人口密度分布和提高公众节水意识,注重城镇用水调控,提高水环境监管与考核范畴则成为水资源管理的重要驱动源。

The degree of regional water resources shortage was chosen as the focus of the research, and water shortage index measurement model was constructed based on matter-element theory and correlation function, and its measurement index system was set up including regional water resource endowment, supply and demand, utilization and social status. Moreover, the water shortage indexes in Guangdong Province were measured from the perspectives of vertical sequence, transverse section and future trend.Results show that the water shortage indexes had a good development trend, going from ＂poor＂to ＂medium＂and then to ＂good＂from 2004 to 2015, but they were all lower than the＂safe＂state, and still have much room for improvement. In addition, the water shortage indexes in 21 provinces have formed the state of ＂three big gradients＂, and the majority of the provinces belong to the ＂medium＂ and＂good＂state and the water shortage indexes have an obvious ＂urban linkage effect＂. However, the trend of index change would be discrete. In the future, the water shortage index is likely to remain stable, but some important measures should be taken to improve water resources management, such as strengthening the control of population growth and density, paying more attention to urban water regulation, improving the level of water quality monitoring, et al.