某三甲综合医院2009年-2016年门诊诊疗人次动态变化分析

Dynamic Analysis of Outpatient Services Person-Time in a First-Class Comprehensive Hospital from 2009 to 2016

目的探讨某三级甲等综合医院2009年-2016年门诊诊疗人次动态变化情况。方法采用时间序列数据季节指数分析法、趋势性分析、cox-stuart检验,分析门诊诊疗人次月、季度、年变动特点与规律。结果 8年门诊诊疗人次通过cox-stuart趋势分析检验,显示医院门诊诊疗人次呈逐年上升趋势(p=7.105e-15,P<0.001),2016年比2009年增长91.05%;1、2月份为低谷期,季节指数分别为86.76%、91.03%,3、7月份为高峰期,季节指数分别为108.71%、107.91%,通过计算出各季度的移动平均数,得出剔除趋势影响后的季节变动的数值,第4季度为低谷期,季节指数95.74%,第2、3季度为高峰期,季节指数分别为103.06%和102.81%。结论门诊诊疗人次的变动以一年为一个周期,随月份和季节的变化周期性的变动,变动幅度大致相同。医院的管理者应该根据患者流量的特点合理安排人力、物力和其他资源,提高医疗服务水平,更好地为患者服务。

Objective To explore the dynamic changes of outpatient services in a certain level of first-class comprehensive hospital from 2009 to 2016. Methods We analyzed the distributed index of the number of the outpatient services in months, seasons and years with index analysis of chronologically season data, trend analysis and cox-Stuart test. Results Eight years of outpatient visits were examined by cox-Stuart trend analysis. We can see that there is an upward trend in outpatient visits（P0.001） and increased by 91.05%, January and February were the lows, season distributed index were 86.76%, 91.03% respectively.March and August were the peak seasons.Seasonal index were 102.09% and 102.81% respectively. Conclusion The flow rate of the outpatients changes with seasons, and it s period is one year. And the width of the change is similar. Hospital managers should be according to the characteristics of reasonable arrangement of patient flow, human, material resources and other resources, improve the level of medical services, better services for patients