海陆复合型大国崛起的“腓力陷阱”与战略透支

Rising Sea-Land Powers,the Felipe II's Trap and Strategy Overdraft

通过对地缘政治学与战略心理学进行交叉研究文章发现,面对海陆复合型崛起大国,海权霸主更多表现出"知觉警觉"的特征,而其周边陆权邻国则更多表现出"知觉防御"的特征。前者倾向于根据权力的结构性对崛起大国采取积极制衡,而后者倾向于根据权力的关系性对崛起大国采取融合威胁的合作或推责。因此,只有当海陆复合型崛起大国对周边陆权邻国明显构成安全威胁时,才会促使它们同海权霸主结成制衡同盟。"腓力陷阱"可以被视为海陆复合型崛起大国因未能认清和利用海权霸主的"知觉警觉"与陆权国的"知觉防御"之间的战略分歧所引发的后果。更确切地说,失败的崛起大国不仅没有理解"知觉防御"的大陆原理本应是其分化战略中的有效支撑,反而因其周边外交的战略冒进帮助了海权霸主建立反制性同盟。对于已获得陆权支配地位的大国来讲,避免追求绝对陆上霸权的战略冒进,转而追求在"不平衡的多边均势"中保持相对优势,则会在"知觉防御"的大陆原理作用下促成周边国家争相推责,从而使海权霸主因无法在陆上找到足够有效的战略盟友而难以推行战略遏制。

Utilizing a cross-disciplinary approach straddling geo-political studies and strategic psychology,we find that when a naval power hegemon is faced by a rising land-sea power,it respond with"perceptual vigilance",while a neighboring land power responds to the same with"perceptual defense".The former tends to adopt a positive checks and balances against the great powers that rise according to the structural nature of power,while the later tends towards accommodating threats from the rising power and engaging in cooperation or passing along responsibilities according to relational power.As such,only when an emerging land-sea power represents a clear threat to a neighboring land power will the two powers form naval alliances to balance one another.The Felipe II's Trap can thus be understood as the consequence of an emerging land-sea power failing to recognize and utilize the strategic differences between the"perceptual vigilance"of a naval hegemon and the"perceptual defense"of a land power.More accurately,a failed rising state is not able to recognize that the logic of"perceptual defense"characteristic of a land power provides an opportunity for an effective strategic response,but instead its neighboring state diplomatic strategy has the unintended effect of helping the naval hegemon to establish a counter alliance.For a great power which has already established its position as a land power,avoiding the pursuit of absolute land power hegemony and instead seeking to maintain a positive of advantage vis-à-vis an"unbalanced multi-lateral configuration of relationships",will enable it to leverage the"perceptual defense"logic of a land power to encourage neighboring states to complete with one another.In turn,this will cripple the ability of the naval hegemon to build the effective land power alliance needed to mount a strategic containment of the rising power.