多随机因素影响下飞行间隔评估及冲突解脱阈值研究

On the flight temporal separation assessment and the conflict resolution threshold in view of the influence of the random factors

为有效评估两机水平安全间隔并建立特情冲突解脱程序,基于多随机因素对飞机位置误差的影响,建立碰撞风险模型和冲突解脱阈值求解模型。首先,考虑CNS性能和高空风作用,改进飞行运动模型,建立碰撞风险模型,得到最低安全间隔标准计算方法。然后,考虑陆空通话影响,结合飞机转弯特性,建立两机在不同相对位置情况下的阈值求解模型,利用最低安全间隔标准值求解冲突解脱阈值。最后,以某管制试飞空域内特定机型相关数据及所受随机因素参数为例进行算例分析,得出两机最低安全间隔标准,并得到防止安全间隔丧失管制员介入冲突解脱程序的阈值,计算结果与管制运行实际吻合,验证了上述理论的正确性。依据多随机因素与最低安全间隔标准脉谱图拟合出相应公式,以期为管制员进行两机安全间隔调配与制定冲突解脱程序提供依据。

The given paper is aimed at presenting an assessment of the horizontal and temporal separation and the threshold for the emergency conflicts resolute-procedure on account of the impacts of the multiple random factors. In order to take the horizontal safety separation of the two airplanes as its study focus on account of the CNS performance and aeronautical meteorology, the paper has established a collision risk model on the assumption of the same flight level status-in-situ, while ignoring the impact of the vertical speed both of the airplane and the actual natural wind. Since the threshold of the flying space interval of the two airplanes should be greater than that for them to keep safety, they should never get closer than the space beyond the safety-warranty minimalist during the entire flight process. For the said purpose, we have set up the improved airplane motion model by considering the factors of CNS performance and the horizontal wind role. The model thus improved can serve as the kinematics core for controlling the collision risks. We have also to work out the horizontal separation minimum limit according to the collision risk model, for the systematic application of the normal distribution probability and the improved airplane motion. In so doing, we could take the value of horizontal separation as the input value of the conflict resolution threshold. Besides, it is also necessary to regard the time interval for the radio-telephony communication as a random factor which obeys the normal distribution. Considering the said factor, the model of the conflict resolution threshold should be used for numerical calculations under the conditions of different relative positions for the two airplanes. And, finally, we＇ d like to take the operation data from a special airspace of Eastern China as a case study sample for our model. In such a case, the minimum separation has been given in the TLS with the threshold for the conflict resolution being confirmed. Since the safety separation tends to be fluctuated in a broader range of the CNS parameters and the wind speed, the same result can be gained for the threshold calculation. And, then, the relative map and the fitting formulas between the multiple random factors and the separation limit can be obtained, which can provide a more accurate guide for keeping the safety separation and the conflict resolution for antiloss discrimination safety separation. Thus, this paper works out an innovative scheme lying in taking multiple random factors as a systematic influence, which sounds more reasonable for the actual operation and, maybe, totally different from the most of the previous applications.