我国某铁路局2005—2014年行车事故分布规律分析

Research review and an analysis of the accident distribution regularity of the state railway bureau during the period of 2005—2014

针对我国某铁路局行车事故多发情况,从事故等级分布、类型分布、原因分布、时间分布、空间分布等多个方面对2005—2014年1 784起铁路行车事故进行综合统计分析,得出了近10年该铁路局行车事故的分布规律。一般D类事故1 008起,占事故总数的85%,是铁路行车事故的绝对主要等级;延误事故1 059起,占事故总数的59.4%,是铁路行车事故的主要类型;设备原因行车事故1 185起,占事故总数的66.42%,是铁路行车事故的绝对主要原因。铁路行车事故在年、月、日、时上的高峰期分别为2006年（293起）、8月（180起）、周五和周天（267＋288起）、14：00—16：00（184起）,分别占事故总数的16.4%、10.1%、31.1%、10.3%。车站铁路行车事故978起,占事故总数的54.8%;其中四等站事故最多为345起,占车站事故总数的35.3%,特等站事故次之为187起,占车站事故总数的19.1%。

The present paper is inclined to provide a comprehensive statistics data and an analysis for the 1 784 railway traffic accidents for the decade from 2005 to 2014 in accordance with the situation of the traffic accidents provided in a state railway bureau. In the above said statistics, we have worked out and made an analysis over the accident grade distributions, the accident distributions in type, reason, time distribution, as well as the spatial distribution and so on. In addition, we have also made careful exploration of the distribution regularities of such railway accidents that took place in the said period, In the above statistics, the general accidents of Class D account for the absolutely main kind of railway traffic accidents, which cumulatively take up 85% of the total number of accidents, that is, 1 008 cases. The traffic delay accidentsas the main type of railway traffic accidents, 1 059 cases, account for 59.4% of the total number of the accidents. And, next, the equipment failure account for 1 185 cases ,occupying 66. 42% of the total number of accidents, the main reason for which is lack of responsibility. The worst year, month, date and time of railway traffic accidents can be found and illustrated as follows ： 2006 （293 cases） , August （ 180 cases） , Friday and Sunday （267. cases ± 288 cases）, 14：00 -16：00 （184 cases） respectively, which respectively account for 16.4%, 10. 1%, 31.1%, and 10. 3% of the total number of accidents. And, thirdly, the railway station traffic accidents and railway interval traffic accidents account for 978 eases and 806 eases respectively, which takes up 54. 8% and 45.2% of the total accidents, accordingly. And, in terms of the places where the accidents took place, 345 cases took place in the level-4 Stations, that is, 35.3% of the total station accidents. The number of the principal level station accidents is 187 cases, accounting for 19. 1% of the total station accidents. The numbers of accidents that took place in the first and second level stations are 142 cases, accounting for 14. 5% of the total station accidents, whereas 119 and 43 cases took p!ace in the level-3 and level-4＆5 stations,taking up 12. 2% and 4. 4% of the total such accidents.