中国对一带一路国家的投资动因、距离因素与区位选择

Investment Motives,Distances Factors and Location Choice of China's Investment along the Belt and Road

科学识别中国对一带一路国家的投资动因和距离因素是实施针对性政策措施、规避投资风险及拓展投资空间的重要前提。文中通过拓展经典的引力模型,利用Heckman两阶段估计法,从是否投资、投资规模两个阶段分析了中国对一带一路国家投资区位选择的经济动因与多维距离。实证分析结果表明:中国的经济发展水平、东道国的市场规模及资源禀赋是中国各阶段投资决策的多重动因;东道国与中国的地理距离和政治距离是影响中国是否对其进行投资的距离因素;地理距离和语言距离是影响投资规模的距离因素。未来中国对一带一路的投资区位选择应综合考量多重动因带来的投资收益与多维距离带来的投资风险,拓展投资范围,实现包容共享的发展目标。

Identification of the investment motives and distance factors can help China to find suitable policies, escape risks and expand investment space. By extending the classical gravitational model, this paper uses Heckman two-stage estimation method to estimate the multiple motivations and multidimensional distances of China＇s investment along the belt and road. This method divide investment decision into two stages, whether to invest or not and the scale of investment. China~ economic development level, the economic development level and resources of the host country are the important motivations for China to invest in the countries. Their geographical distances and political distances with China are the factors that China considered when it decided where to invest. And geographical distance and language distance are important factors influencing the scale of China＇ s investment. Therefore, China needs to consider both the benefits that are brought by the economic motives and the risk that are brought by the multidimensional distances, so as to realize the inclusive goals of the Belt and Road Initiative.