货币供给量、货币流通速度与经济增长的关系分析

Analysis on the Relationship between Money Supple Amount,Money Circulation Speed and Economic Growth

货币量是衡量经济健康程度和稳定性的重要指标。通过方差分解分析对货币量、流通速度以及经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:第一,相比较广义货币供给量,狭义货币供给量对经济增长的影响更为显著;第二,而且货币流通速度对经济增长的影响几乎为零。这与过去的研究结论明显不同,在目前中国的复杂经济背景下,实际情况颠覆了传统的经济理论对这个问题的解释,相反,经济增长却是货币流通速度的主要影响因素;第三,相比较狭义货币供给量,广义货币供给量对其自身的解释能力更大,经济增长对广义货币供给量供给的解释能力更弱。

Money volume is an important measure of economic health and stability. Based on the data from 2000 to 2016,this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between money volume,circulation rate and economic growth through variance analysis. The results show that： Firstly,compared to M_2,the impact of M_1 on economic growth is more significant. Secondly,the impact of currency circulation on economic growth is almost equal to zero. This is obviously different from the previous research conclusion. Under the background of China＇s complex economy,the actual situation has overturned the explanation of the traditional economic theory. On the contrary,economic growth is the main influencing factor of the currency circulation rate. Thirdly,compared to M_1,the currency M_2 has a greater ability to explain itself,and the economic growth is less explanatory to M_2 supply.