人民币国际化、市场化进程与汇率传导机制变迁

RMB Internationalization, Marketization and Development of Transmission Mechanism

国际化和市场化是国际金融危机以来人民币汇率运行的两大驱动力量，国际化扩大了离岸人民币市场的影响，市场化强化了人民币离岸与在岸市场之间的联系，因此，在国际化和市场化的双核驱动下，人民币汇率传导机制发生了显著变化。邹氏断点检验表明，“811汇改”前后人民币汇率运行发生了结构性突变。格兰杰因果检验显示，“811汇改”前后人民币汇率传导路径发生了逆转。脉冲响应分析表明，人民币离岸汇率对在岸汇率的影响在“811汇改”后显著增强。人民币汇率传导机制的突变、质变与量变对人民币汇率的管理提出了新的挑战，考虑到离岸汇率在当前人民币汇率体系中的主导地位，我们认为应该强化人民币离岸市场管理，使人民币汇率既能反映市场供求关系的变化又能维持基本稳定，以实现人民币国际化和市场化的可持续发展。

Internationalization and marketization are two main driving forces of RMB operation since international financial crisis. Internationalization strengthens the influence of RMB offshore market, and marketization deepens the relationship between offshore and onshore market. Under this circumstance, the transmission mechanism of RMB exchange rate has changed significantly. The Chow test shows that, RMB exchange rate experiences structural break after the ＂811 Reform of RMB Exchange Rate＂. Granger causality test shows that, the transmission path of RMB exchange rate is reversed after the ＂811 Reform＂. The impulse response analysis shows that, the influence of CNH over CNY gets stronger significantly after the ＂811 Reform＂. Such kind of changes in the transmission mechanism of RMB exchange rate pose a new challenge to the management of RMB exchange rate. Considering the dominant position of RMB offshore exchange rate in current exchange rate system, for the sake of sustainable development of RMB internationalization and marketization, we believe that it is necessary to put more emphasis on the management of RMB offshore market in order to make RMB exchange rate not only reflect market demand and supply but also remain roughly stable.