中国结构性货币政策实践与效果评价——基于数量型和利率导向型结构性货币政策的比较分析

An Evaluation of the Implementation and Effects of China's Structural Monetary Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Quantitative and Interest-based Structural Monetary Policy

在对比分析中国数量型和利率导向型结构性货币政策的传导机制和政策特点的基础上,运用VAR方法实证研究了2013年以来两类结构性货币政策的经济增长效应、利率效应、财富效应和价格效应。研究发现:数量型和利率导向型结构性货币政策对经济增长都具有正向的促进作用,数量型结构性货币政策与利率水平和价格水平正相关,与财富效应负相关;利率导向型结构性货币政策与利率水平和价格水平负相关,与财富效应正相关。总体来说,利率导向型结构性货币政策效果优于数量型结构性货币政策。中国应根据不同的政策目标因时因地选择结构性货币政策;同时,应注重数量型和利率导向型结构性货币政策的搭配使用,逐步实现货币政策由数量型向利率导向型的转变,更好地发挥市场在引导资金流动、维护金融稳定中的作用。

To carry out a comparative analysis of the transmission mechanism and the char- acteristics of China＇s quantitative and interest -based structural monetary policies, this paper used the VAR method to empirically study effects, since 2013 ,of two types of structural monetary policies on economic growth, interest rate levels, the wealth effect, and price levels. This study found that quantitative and interest- based structural monetary policies have a positive effect on eco- nomic growth. It also found that quantitative structural monetary policies are positively correlated with interest rate and price levels but negatively correlated with the wealth effect. Conversely, in- terest-based structural monetary policies are negatively correlated with interest rate levels and positively correlated with the wealth effect. Generally, interest-based structural monetary policies are more effective than quantitative structural monetary policies, but Chinese authorities should decide on structural monetary policies based on specific policy objectives. At the same time, the authorities should emphasize the combined use of quantitative and interest-based structural mo- netary policies to facilitate the gradual transition from quantitative to interest- based monetary policies. This approach will serve to better guide capital flows and maintain financial stability.