能源价格、经济增长与我国能源强度的变动——基于LMDI分解与计量模型的实证研究

Energy Price,Economic Growth and Chinese Energy Intensity Change——Based on LMDI Decomposition and Econometric Model Analysis

运用LMDI乘法分解模型,将能源强度变动分解为技术进步效应、部门结构变动效应与能源替代效应;建立计量经济模型分析驱动能源强度变动三种效应的价格与经济原因。基于我国1980~2014年数据的实证结果表明：能源价格上涨、经济增长对于降低能源强度具有显著的积极作用,但对技术进步效应、部门结构变动效应与能源替代效应的影响存在显著的差异性。能源价格对技术进步效应影响效果最显著,对部门结构变动效应影响较小,对能源替代效应无显著影响。能源价格上涨主要是通过促进技术进步而不是通过引发经济结构调整或能源消费结构改变推动能源强度下降。经济增长与技术进步效应、部门结构变动效应呈负相关关系,与能源替代效应不相关。

This paper decomposes energy intensity into three driving effects, induding technology progress, structural change and energy substitution by LMDI multiplicative. And then, it builds the econometric model to estimate the impacts of price, economy on the effects driving energy intensity. Based on empirically analysis of China data from 1980 to 2014, results show that Chinese energy price and economic growth for reducing energy intensity have a significant positive impact. The impact of energy price on the technology progress effect is the most significant, which has little impact on the structural change effect and has no significant impact on the energy substitution effect. Rising energy price is fueling energy intensity by tech- nological progress rather than structural change or energy substitution. Economic growth is negatively related to the effects of technology progress and structural change, and is not related to the energy substitution effect.