“奥巴马选民”VS“特朗普选民”:关键性选举与美国政党选民联盟重组

“Obama Voter”VS“Trump Voter”:Critical Election and American Party-voter Realigning

关键性选举理论是美国政党政治和选举研究的核心理论,2016年美国大选是一次久违的关键性选举。本文以关键性选举理论框架考察2008年以来美国选举政治与政党体制的深层次变革,以"奥巴马选民"联盟和"特朗普选民"联盟两个概念为线索,分析美国经济社会结构、政党选民联盟和政治议题变迁的作用机制。2008年以来,抓住少数族裔人口比例大幅上升的机遇,民主党成功打造了"奥巴马选民"联盟,扩大了选民基本盘,获得了相对共和党的选举优势。为了扭转劣势,共和党主流政客分别提出了"拉拢拉美裔"和"唤醒基本盘"两个选举策略。但是,均不成功。特朗普的出现则在一定程度上成功回应了"奥巴马选民"联盟的挑战,从根本上重塑着共和党的选民基础,带来了1960年代以来美国政党选民联盟的根本性重组:第一,民主党曾经的核心支持者"锈带"蓝领改换门庭,与中南部白人联手构成了新的共和党选民联盟,成为特朗普赢得大选和共和党夺取国会多数席位的关键力量;第二,议题巨变。"反非法移民"和"把工作带回美国"一跃成为美国政治的核心议题,并在特朗普执政后引发了公共政策的根本转向。

Critical election theory was one of the most important theories of American party politics and electoral studies. The 2016 U. S. election was a long-lost critical election. Following the framework of critical election theory,this article used ＂Obama Voter＂and ＂Trump Voter＂as clues,analyzed the change mechanism of American economy society construction,party-voter realigns and political agendas. This article argued that,since 2008,seizing the opportunity of the proportion of the minority population rising,Democratic Party succeeded in building ＂Obama Voter＂,expanded its voter base,and gained an advantage in election. In order to reduce election disadvantages,mainstream Republicans presented two election strategies： ＂attract Latino＂and ＂waken Republican base. ＂But,all failed. The advent of Trump responded the challenges of ＂Obama Voter,＂reshaped Republican voter base,and made a basic Party-voter realigning happened： first,rust belt workers who was the supporter of Democratic Party before formed an alliance with whites in South,became the key factor that help Trump and Republican Party to win the elections. Second,＂anti illegal immigration ＂ and ＂bring jobs back home ＂ became the core issues of American politics.