基于区间入流预报的右江河道洪水演进

Application of Muskingum method in flood routing of Youjiang River based on interval inflow forecast

广西右江如果发生大洪水,将对郁江和南宁市的防洪产生严重威胁,因此右江洪水演进分析对南宁市的防洪具有重要意义。选出百色水文站洪峰流量依次增大的5场洪水,用右江百色-田东河段区间内的小流域作为代表性流域率定新安江模型参数,对区间入流洪水进行了预报。根据预报结果采用经参数试错法率定后的马斯京根模型对5场洪水进行了演进,计算了田东水文站断面的流量。结果表明:计算结果与实测流量相对误差较小,相关性系数较大,说明试错法对于马斯京根模型参数求解精度较高。

In the case of big flood occurring in the Youjiang River,a upstream source of the Yujiang River,the flood safety of the Yujiang River and Nanning,Guangxi will be threaten seriously,so the analysis on the flood routing of the Youjiang River is of great importance to the flood control of Nanning City. In the light of 5 big floods in different scales,Xin＇anjiang Model＇s parameters were calibrated with the representative small watershed between Bose hydrological station and Tiandong hydrological station on the Youjiang River and the interval floods were forecasted. According to the forecasted results,the 5 big floods in the Youjiang River were routed to Tiandong Hydrological Station with Muskingum Model,which was calibrated by trial-and-error method.The calculation results showed that the relative error between calculated results and the measured discharges were small with large correlation coefficient,showing that trial-and-error method has higher accuracy to calculating Muskingum Model＇s parameter.