基于综合权重法的西北典型区域水资源脆弱性评价研究

Vulnerability assessment of water resources in the northwest typical area based on comprehensive weighting method

水资源脆弱性对水资源的开发利用具有重要的影响。甘肃省水资源脆弱性具有明显的区域特色与典型性。针对当前甘肃省水资源脆弱性评价中存在的空间尺度不全面以及指标偏少等问题,以流域为评价单元,从抗干扰性和自我恢复性两方面,综合考虑自然因素和人为因素,构建包含28个指标的指标体系,基于层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法,提出水资源脆弱性评价的综合权重法,对甘肃省2001-2015年的水资源脆弱性进行评价。结果表明:甘肃省水资源脆弱性具有明显的空间分异性,低脆弱性流域集中分布于东南部的湿润半湿润区,高脆弱性流域集中分布于西北部的干旱半干旱区,气候的干湿状况对水资源脆弱性有重要影响;脆弱性高及其增加速度较快的流域均位于经济开发规模最高或增加较快的区域,人类活动对水资源脆弱性的变化有重要影响;气候的暖湿化可减缓河西走廊水资源的脆弱性,但不能从根本上解决问题,可结合人类的有效治理措施来降低水资源的脆弱性;甘肃省长江流域出现的水资源低脆弱性与高缺水率并存的现象,与区域工程性缺水密切相关。研究成果可为区域水资源脆弱性评价与水资源开发利用提供决策参考。

The vulnerability of water resources has important effect on the development and utilization of water resources. The vulnerability of water resources in Gansu Province has obviously regional features and representativeness. In order to solve the problems that the spatial scale is not comprehensive and fewer index could be selected in the current study of water resources vulnerability in Gansu province. Taking basins as evaluation units,from two aspects of anti-interference and restorative,we established an index system consisting of 28 indexes by comprehensively considering of natural factors and human factors. Based on the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） and entropy weight method,the vulnerability evaluation of water resources comprehensive weighting method was putt forward to study the vulnerability of water resources of Gansu province from 2001 to 2015. Results show that the vulnerability of water resources in Gansu province had obvious spatial differentiation. The low vulnerability basins concentrated in southeast semi-humid and humid regions; the high vulnerability basins concentrated in northwest semi-arid or arid regions. The dry and wet climate conditions had important effects on water resource vulnerability. basins that had higher vulnerability and rising faster all located in the areas with higher economic development scale or economy growing faster. Human economic development had important effect on water resource vulnerability. Climate becoming wet reduced the vulnerability of water resources system in hexi corridor,but couldn＇t solve the problem fundamentally. It must combine with human management. The Yangtze river basin in Gansu province has the phenomenon of low water resources vulnerability and high rate of water shortage coexistence,it has closely related to regional physical water shortage. These research results can provide decision-making reference to regional water resource vulnerability assessment,and water resource development and utilization in the feature.