中美实际汇率的决定机制及其对双边金融合作的影响

The Decision Mechanism of Sino-US Bilateral Real Exchange Rate and Its Impact on the Financial Cooperation

中美双边汇率问题及汇率机制协调是两国开展金融合作的重要基石。基于修正的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应模型,从一价定律偏离和中美市场准入限制的假设出发,研究中美双边实际汇率的决定机制。结果显示:源于通货膨胀水平差异的一价定律是决定当前中美双边汇率变动的主要因素。巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应所代表的"相对之相对"生产率差异的影响力越来越大;而中国金融市场的开放及其对美国金融业市场准入水平的提高,也会在短期内提高双边实际汇率的水平。

Sino-US bilateral exchange rate and exchange rate mechanism coordination are an important foundation for the two countries to carry out in-depth and extensive financial cooperation.In this paper,based on the modified Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis model,we study the decision mechanism of the bilateral real exchange rate,from perspective of the lawof one price deviation and the market restrictions between China and the United States.The conclusion shows that the lawof one price deviation due to differences in the level of inflation is the main factor to determine the current bilateral exchange rate changes,the growing influence of the differences in relative-relative productivity from the BSH is bigger,and the opening of the China’s financial market and improving market access of financial industry level for US will improve the level of bilateral real exchange rate in the short term.