因果关系概率分析的一种新趋势

The New Trend of Probabilistic Analysis of Causation

自休谟以来,因果问题一直是哲学界感兴趣的话题。学者们对于"C引起E"这种惯用的因果表达式的解释长期以来争论不休。随着量子力学的兴起及其产生的广泛影响,使得学者们从因果决定论逐步转向对因果进行概率分析。然而,罗素从科学定律的陈述形式来解释因果,引发学者们拒斥概率分析因果的还原路径,他们主张原因与结果之间存在着不可还原的连续过程。这两种解释进路都在不程度上面临其自身难以克服的困难,鉴于此,诸多学者主张,将这两种进路综合起来,为各自面临的问题提供新的解决思路。由此,通过剖析相关的典型案例,深入讨论这两种路径各自遭遇的问题和挑战,进而考察道尔的综合方案,指其面临的反例和问题,并提出解决思路和新修正方案。

Since Hume, the problem of causality has been a subject of interest for the philosophic world. Scholars have been arguing among themselves about the interpretation of the expression of ＂C causing E＂. With the extensive influence of quantum mechanics, scholars have turned to probabilistic analysis of causation from causal determinism. However, Russell＇s insistence that causality be interpreted from the statement form of scientific laws has made many scholars reject the reduction path of probabilistic analysis of causation. Instead, they advocate that there is an unreducible continuous process between cause and effect. Both of these interpretation paths are confronted with difficulties in various degrees. Therefore, many scholars propose that aggregating these ways may help solve their respective difficulties. By means of analyzing the interrelated typical cases, this paper discusses thoroughly problems and challenges confronted by these paths, and then examines Dowe＇s comprehensive approach, pointing out that it is faced with counterexamples and problems. The paper also puts forward a solution and an improvement scheme.