劳动生产率、劳动力转移与产业结构变迁——基于鲍莫尔——福克斯假说实证分析

Labor Productivity,Labor Force Transfer and Industrial Structure Evolution——An Empirical Analysis Based on Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis

随着我国产业发展进入后工业化阶段,第三产业在经济增长中的作用越来越重要。而在第三产业增势正劲之时,为何工业发展却遇到了阻力,经济面临着巨大的下行压力?结合鲍莫尔—福克斯假说的理论及其修正与发展的经验检验,选取1995~2010年全国31个省级行政区的面板数据,从第三产业的产出结构和就业结构两个方面进行实证检验。结果显示,我国在推进工业化进程中,第三产业劳动生产率相对滞后,在市场机制发育不够完善条件下,相关服务业发展与工业化进程并不同步,但是随着第二产业相对第三产业的劳动生产率的提高,促进了第三产业就业比重的提升;也就是说,第三产业劳动生产率的相对滞后是第三产业吸纳大量劳动力的重要原因。由此证实了鲍莫尔—福克斯假说的一般性结论。

As China＇s industrial development enters the post-industrialization phase,the tertiary industry is playing an increasingly important role in economic growth. Meanwhile,the industrial development is faced with resistance and the economy is under the tremendous downward pressure. Combined with the theory of BaumolFuchs hypothesis and the empirical test of its revision and development,a study is conducted in this paper to analyze the output structure and employment structure of the tertiary industry based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1995 to 2010 in China. The test result indicates that the labor productivity of the tertiary industry lags behind in the process of promoting industrialization in our country. The development of the related service industry and the process of industrialization are not synchronized under the imperfect development of the market mechanism. However,the improvement of labor productivity in the secondary industry has promoted the increase of the proportion of employment in tertiary industry. In other words,the relative lagging of labor productivity in tertiary industry is an important reason for the tertiary industry to absorb a large amount of labor force,which confirms the general conclusion of the Baumol-Fuchs Hypothesis.