1961-2015年新疆0cm地温的时空分布特征及突变分析

Spatial-temporal characteristics and mutation analysis of ground temperature in Xingjiang from 1961 to 2015

根据新疆地温观测时间最长、资料最完整的86个地面气象站1961-2015年地面0cm地温逐月资料,运用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法对0cm地温的时空变化特征进行了分析。研究表明:从时间尺度来看,近55年新疆0cm地温呈显著波动上升趋势,增温速率为0.54℃/10a,突变点为1999年。地温的突变存在明显的季节差异,春、夏、秋、冬四季0cm地温突变年份分别为2000年、1995年、1998年、2003年,增温速率冬季(1.40℃/10a)>秋季(0.59℃/10a)>春季(0.53℃/10a)>夏季(0.42℃/10a);从空间分布来看,0cm地温增温速率北疆(0.70℃/10a)>东疆(0.46℃/10a)>南疆(0.40℃/10a)。地温与气温呈现出显著正相关关系,而风速降低有利于地温的增加。因此,在全球气候变暖、风速降低的大背景下,地温将持续升高。

Based on the monthly ground temperature data from 82 stations in Xinjiang for the period of 1961 - 2012, the temporal - spatial characteristic of annual ground temperature in Xinjiang were investigated with the linear trend analysis, Mann - Kendall and mixed interpolation of ArcGIS. The main results of this study suggest that the mean annual ground temperature in study area showed an increasing trend during the last 55 years. The increasing rate of ground temperature was 0.54℃/10a, and the jump point was 1999. The abrupt ground temperature showed significant seasonal differences; the increasing rate of ground temperature and the jump point of each season（spring, summer, autumn and winter） were 0.53℃/10a, 0.42℃/10a, 0.59℃/10a, 1.40℃/10a and 2000, 1995, 1998 and 2003, respectively. Spatial distribution feature of the ground temperature showed that the increasing rate was the highest in Northern Xinjiang and the lowest in Southern Xinjiang. Ground temperature presented a notable positive correlation with air temperature. The decreasing of wind speed was helpful for increasing the ground temperature. Under the background of global warming and wind speed decreasing, the ground temperature will rise steadily.