基于环境犯罪学理论的入室盗窃时空分布研究——以北京市主城区案件的分析为例

RESEARCH ON SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF BURGLARY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL CRIMINOLOGY: BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF CRIME IN BEIJING

以往关于犯罪时空特征的研究较多的侧重于对犯罪时空分布现象的描述分析以及从人文地理视角下的环境影响性分析,但缺少从环境要素与犯罪主体行为之间的相互作用机制下的犯罪时空特征研究。本文通过开展北京市入室盗窃案件的时空热点实证分析,总结和归纳了案件热点环境的时空要素类型,并基于环境犯罪学的基本原理,构建了基于犯罪主体与环境影响要素相互作用的犯罪时空分布机制,其中,环境对犯罪主体的影响主要表现为四类要素,即目标、交通、防范和作案时机。这些研究可以为下一步开展犯罪模拟以及犯罪预防提供借鉴。

Previous studies about the spatial-temporal characteristics of crime were more focused on the de- scription of spatial-temporal distributions and environment analysis in the perspective of human geography, but research on the interaction mechanism between criminal behaviors and environment for the spatio-tempo- ral characteristics is still insufficient. With burglary data of Beijing region in 2013, an analyzation was made in this paper to explore the regularity of burglary crime in Beijing. First, crime hotspots are revealed by ker- nel destiny mapping of all burglary incidents, and six crime hotspots with highest destiny were selected to make a further analysis at a micro level. Three area types are as follows： cottage and constructions sites, crowded public areas, residential area which closed to main road. Mechanism of crime spatio-temporal distri- butions between subject of crime and environmental factors was constructed based on the criminal environ- ment theory. In this mechanism, the effect of environment on the subject of crime mainly include four ele- ments, namely the target, traffic, crime prevention measures and the opportunity. Targets distribution and convenient transportation help to improve the subject of crime proceeds of crime, which has a positive rein- forcement for the criminal behaviors; crime prevention measures and opportunity make the subject of crime to avoid risk, which has a negative reinforcement for the criminal behaviors.