“一带一路”重大项目地缘风险研究

STUDY ON THE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS OF MAJOR PROJECTS OF'THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE'

"一带一路"机遇和前景无限,但同时遭遇着严峻的地缘风险。重大项目地缘风险是由地缘因素引起的导致重大项目产生不利后果的可能性,具有客观性、主观性、主体间性、不确定性、后果严重性、纯风险性特点。论文基于全球、区域、国家、项目四个尺度,从"地缘"视角深入探讨了重大项目地缘风险影响机理,在多尺度、多主体、多因素的综合研究框架下构建了重大项目地缘风险评估指标体系,以中国面向东南亚、南亚重大项目地缘风险为例进行研究,并对缅甸密松水电项目进行地缘风险微观剖析。

＂The Belt and Road Initiative＂ has unlimited opportunities and glorious prospects, but at the same time suffering serious geopolitical risks. Geopolitical risk of major projects is the possibility of an adverse consequence for major projects, which is caused by geopolitical factors. Geopolitical risk has many charac- teristics, including the objectivity, subjectivity, intersubjectivity, uncertainty, consequences severity, pure risks. Paper based on the multi-scale including global, region, state, project, then from the perspectives of geopolitics discusses the influence mechanism of geopolitical risks of major projects. Under the comprehen- sive research framework with multi-scale, multiple main bodies, multi-factor, constructs an assessment index system of geopolitical risks of major projects. The assessment index system geopolitical risks includs the in- ternational geopolitical environment risks, regional geographical environment risks, geopolitical relation risks between the host country and investor country, the investment geopolitical risks of host country, project- level geopolitical risks. Then the complex geopolitical risks sources is decomposed into 23 the major inde- pendent variables. After the theory research, with China＇s major projects in Southeast Asia and South Asia for example, researches the geopolitical risks of major projects, and the risk-level is divided into four grades, Philippines, Vietnam, India are the high-risk countries. Through quantitative evaluation, the Myanmar Myit- sone hydro-electric dam is belong to high-risk grade. Finally, puts forward the suggestion that we need strengthen the monitoring and early warning of geopolitical risks, to avoid the geopolitical risks of major projects of ＂the Belt and Road Initiative＂.