新常态下我国对外贸易仍能促进制造业技术进步吗?——基于制造业细分行业的实证分析

Can Foreign Trade Still Promote Manufacturing Sectors' Technological Improvements in Chinese New Normal Period: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Manufacturing Industry Segment

利用改进的C-H模型,就贸易技术外溢的吸收能力对中国各制造业部门转型升级的影响进行实证研究。发现研发资本存量对制造业各行业的TFP提高有显著促进作用。8项吸收能力都对技术密集型部门通过贸易渠道吸收溢出技术起到了至关重要的作用。同时,技术密集型部门通过贸易渠道获得技术具有学习能力的"门槛效应";而劳动密集型制造业在技术上已存在瓶颈。改革意愿和制度因素与贸易的交叉项对劳动密集型制造业TFP影响均不显著。因而,在新常态背景下,改变我国贸易结构,提高技术密集型制造业在对外贸易中的比重将有利于我国制造业转型升级。

In this paper, the improved C -H model is used to study the influence of the absorption capacity of trade tech- nology spillovers on the transformation and upgrading of China~ manufacturing sector. The empirical results show that the R＆D capital stock has a significant effect on the improvement of the TFP of the domestic manufacturing industry. Human capital, openness, R ＆ D investment, financial development, infrastructure, economic development level, reform willing- ness and institutional, all the factors play a crucial role in absorbing technology through trade channel in the technology - intensive sector. At the same time, China＇s technology- intensive sectors obtain technology through the trade channels, which has an ＂ threshold effect＂ . The impact that the cross term of the level of economic development and trade on the TFP of labor - intensive manufacturing in China is significantly negative, which indicates that China~ labor - intensive man- ufacturing industry has a technical bottleneck. The cross term of reform willingness and trade, the cross term between insti- tutional factors and trade, both of them have no significant effect on the TFP of labor - intensive manufacturing in China. Therefore, under the new normal background, changing Chinas trade structure and improving the proportion of technology - intensive manufacturing in China~ foreign trade will he conducive to the transformation and upgrading of China~ manufac- turing industry.