美联储缩表:原因、进程、溢出效应及中国对策

The Causes,Processes and Spillover Effects of the Reduction of Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet and China’s Countermeasures

近期,美联储缩表问题引起广泛关注。首先,该文系统深入地分析了美联储缩表的原因。次贷危机期间,美联储通过实施大规模资产购买计划持续＂扩表＂压低了长期利率,促进了经济复苏,但同时也带来了长期利率过低、超额存款准备金大幅增加等一系列影响。上述影响将给美国经济复苏带来诸多不确定性。因此,美联储必须＂缩表＂以避免潜在风险。之后,该文创新性地首次对缩表规模进行了详尽的测算,结果显示,2018年美联储的缩表规模将达到约4000亿美元左右,未来五年内缩表的规模约在2万亿美元左右。并且,到2019年当前缩表计划的缩表力度将大大减弱。因此,美联储可能在2019年改变缩表计划,同时引入主动卖出机制增强缩表力度。最后,该文对美联储缩表的溢出效应也进行了全面的阐述。美联储持续缩表将加剧中国资本流出和人民币贬值压力,金融市场风险也会加大。中国应积极进行防范,以尽量降低美联储缩表的负面影响。

The issue of the Fed＇s shrinking the balance sheet has drawn wide attention recently.Firstly,this paper analyzes the reasons why the Federal Reserve is shrinking the balance sheet in a comprehensive and systematic way.After the subprime mortgage crisis,due to the implementation of largescale asset purchase program,the Fed successfully depressed long-term interest rates and promoted the economic recovery,but it also caused a series of effects,such as the low long-term interest rate,the substantial increase in excess deposit reserve,and the change of monetary policy framework.The impact above will bring many uncertainties to the U.S.economic recovery.Therefore,the Fed must shrink the balance sheet to avoid potential risks.After that,for the first time,this paper makes a detailed calculation for the scale of contract reduction.The results show that the size of the shrinking scale of the Federal Reserve will reach about 400 billion U.S.dollars in 2018 and about 2 trillion U.S.dollars in the next five years.Meanwhile,the contraction of the current schedule will be greatly reduced by 2019.As a result,the Fed may change its downsizing plan in 2019 with the introduction of a pro-active selling mechanism to enhance the shrinking.Finally,the article also expounded the spillover effect of the Fed＇s reduction.Continued contraction of the Federal Reserve will exacerbate the pressure on China＇s capital outflows and the devaluation of the RMB,and the risks in the financial markets will also increase.China should take active precautions to minimize the negative effects of the Fed＇s contraction.