新时期技术创新与我国经济周期性波动的再思考

Reconsidering Technological Innovation and Cyclical Fluctuation of China Economy in the New Era

从马克思和熊彼特关于技术创新的经济周期理论及其在当代的新发展来看,技术创新对经济增长起到了关键性的推动作用,本质上解释了当前世界经济回暖复苏的根源。伴随着新一轮技术革命成果的应运而生,新时期技术创新对我国经济周期性波动也产生了一定的冲击。分析结果表明,我国技术创新在繁荣阶段与经济周期运行的关联度要高于衰退阶段;分地区讨论来看,我国东北地区技术创新与经济周期性波动之间的关联度明显高于其他地区;另外,技术创新冲击对我国经济周期的影响具有十分显著的正向效应,持续时间约为7-8年,且新时期技术创新的冲击将使我国经济周期性波动表现出周期长度缩短、波动幅度减小、平均位势上升、波动频率降低的"缓升缓降"的新特征。

In the perspective of economic cycle theory of Marx and Schumpeter on technology innovation and its current development,technological innovation has a crucial role in booming up economic growth,and this explains essentially recovery of the world economy at present. With the coming of a new round of technological revolution,technological innovation in the new period has also had China economy under its sway with cyclical fluctuations. The analytical findings show that China's technological innovation is generally more related to the stage of prosperity than to the stage of decline; in the discussion,co-relation between Northeast China technology innovation and the economic cyclical fluctuation is significantly higher than in other regions; in addition,the influence of technological innovation on China's economic cyclical fluctuations brings about positive significant effect,with a duration lasting about 7-8 years,leaving a cycle length shortened,a fluctuation reduced and the average potential rise and instability reduced.