正规、非正规金融对农户创业决策及创业绩效的影响——基于替代效应的视角

Influence of Formal and Informal Finance on Farmers' Decision Making and Effectiveness in Business Startup——A Perspective from Substitution Effect

运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014数据,建立Probit模型和多元回归模型,对正规、非正规金融对农户创业决策及创业绩效的影响进行分析。结果表明:正规金融和非正规金融均对农户创业决策具有正向的显著作用,非正规金融比正规金融对农户创业决策的影响更大;正规金融和非正规金融对农户的创业绩效,如经营规模、盈利状况等也有显著影响;正规金融和非正规金融之间存在替代效应,即当正规金融无法满足创业农户的融资需求时,农户会转向非正规金融以获取创业所需资金。

Based on the CFPS2014 survey data, this paper establishes the Probit model and multiple linear regression model and studies the influence of formal and informal finance on farmers＇ decision making and effectiveness in business startup. Results show that both formal and informal finance have significant positive effect on farmers＇ decision making of business startup, though informal finance shows a greater impact than formal finance. Such positive influence is also seen on farmers＇ business performance, such as scale and profitability. There is a substitution effect between formal and informal finance, which means farmers will turn to informal finance if their funding needs can＇ t be satisfied by formal finance.