基于收入及成本视角的全球服务贸易增长动因研究——来自40个经济体贸易增长贡献度分解方程的经验分析

Study on the Causes of Global Service Trade Growth in Terms of Income and Cost——An Empirical Analysis of Decomposition Equation of Trade Contribution Index from 40 Economies

在当前经济服务化、服务全球化的时代背景下,基于收入及成本视角,利用世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)的大样本数据和Novy(2008)的贸易增长贡献度分解方程对全球1995—2011年40个经济体服务贸易增长的动因进行了研究。结果发现:(1)收入增加是服务贸易增长的首要引擎,双边服务贸易成本的降低是其第二大源泉,而多边服务贸易成本的贡献也有着不可忽视的影响。(2)中国的服务贸易增长动因与全球样本的结论相似,但是,三种动因的贡献程度演变趋势却不尽相同。经济收入增长的贡献表现出逐渐递减的趋势,双边服务贸易成本降低的贡献具有逐渐增强的趋势,而多边服务贸易成本降低的贡献则表现出缓慢的弱化态势。

Under the background of service economy and service globalization, this paper adopts the large sample data from the world＇ s input-output database （WIOD） and the decomposition equation of contribution index derived by Novy in 2008 to study the causes of service trade growth of 40 economies in the world between 1995 and 2011 in terms of income and cost. The results show that firstly, the income increase is the prime engine of service trade growth while the decrease in bilateral service trade cost is the second cause with multilateral service trade cost contributing in the meantime. Secondly, the causes of China＇ s service trade growth are the same as the conclusion from global samples, but the evolution trends of the three contributing causes are different. Specifically, the contribution of income increase shows a gradually decreasing trend while the contribution of descending bilateral service trade cost shows an increasing trend. In addition, the contribution of multilateral services trade cost decrease shows a slowly weakening trend.