基于点面结合方法的洪水预测研究

Study on flood prediction based on method of integrating point with face

目前对于大面积流域的洪水预测研究还仅仅停留在时间的预测上,对于详细地点的预测研究不足,而点面结合的研究方法可以从时间和空间上相互论证预报的合理性及完整性。采用可公度法对东北地区进行洪水预测,不仅对整个东北地区洪水发生年份进行了预测,对于具体详细地点的预测,通过采用点面结合的预测方法来提高预测的精度。面预测验证了2013年洪水的必然性,且预测了2017年的东北洪水。点预测中由于空间分布的差异性,用四个代表性的站点对东北地区的来水情况进行丰平枯的辅助定性预测,除一个站点没有显著年份外,其他三个站点均显示2017年为极丰。综合判断2017年东北洪水有极大可能性。

At present,the study on the flood prediction for the river basin with large area still remains at the temporal prediction,and then the study made on the prediction of the specific location is insufficient. However,the study method of integrating point with face can temporally and spatially demonstrate the reasonability and the completeness of the predictions each other. All the occurrence years and specific locations of the floods occurred in the region of the Northeast China are predicted herein with the method of commensurability,while the accuracy of the prediction is enhanced through the prediction method of integrating point with face. The inevitability of the flood occurred in 2013 is verified with the face-prediction,and moreover,the flood that is to occur in the region of the Northeast China in 2017 is predicted as well. In the point-prediction,an auxiliary qualitative prediction on the abundant,normal and low inflows into the region of the Northeast China is made with four typical sites due to the discrepancy among the spatial distributions concerned. Except one of the sites has no significant year,all the other three sites show that 2017 is the year with quite abundant water,thus it is comprehensively judged that flood is quite possibly to occur in the region of the Northeast China in 2017.