鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食单产时空格局演变及驱动因素探究

Spatial and Temporal Pattern Evolution of Grain Yield and Spatial Heterogeneity of Driving Factors in Poyang Lake Eco Economic Zone

运用鄱阳湖生态经济区2001-2014年粮食生产面板数据，采用变异系数法、探索性数据分析（ESDA）方法以及地理加权回归（GWR）模型，分析鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食单产时空格局演变情况及驱动因素的空间异质性。结果表明：鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食单产年际间有所波动，但整体呈快速上升态势，粮食单产变异系数呈先波动下降后持续上升特征。鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食单产具有较强的全局空间相关性；粮食单产处于高一高地区和低一低地区的县（市）较多，处于高一低地区和低一高地区的县（市）较少；2001、2014年种粮人口规模、有效灌溉面积占比、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农用化肥折纯量对鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食单产驱动作用存在较大空间异质性。

This paper analyzed spatial heterogeneity of Ecological Economic Zone of Poyang Lake grain yield spatial pattern evolution and driving factors of the situation by using the panel data of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone of grain production from 2001 to 2014, exploratory spatial data analysis （ESDA） method, using the coefficient of variation method and geographical weighted regression （GWR） model. The results show that the annual yield of grain in Poyang Lake eco economic zone fluctuated year by year, but the overall growth rate showed a fast rising trend. At the same time, the coefficient of variation of grain yield was first fluctuated and then increased continuously.The grain yield of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has strong global spatial correlation. There are counties （cities） with high-yield areas and low-low areas have more grain yield, and counties （cities） with high-low areas and low-high areas have less.In 2001 and 2014, The driving force of grain yield in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone has a large spatial heterogeneity by grain size of the population, the proportion of effective irrigated area, the total power of agricultural machinery, the rural electricity consumption and the pure amount of agrochemical fertilizer.