基于联立方程模型的用电量与经济关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economy Based on Simultaneous Equation Model

电力数据作为宏观经济的"晴雨表",能够有效反映国家的基础性工业、民生的运行,准确预测用电量对我国工业运行、居民生活都有着重要意义。通过对安徽省经济规律和用电量规律的仔细分析,建立了包含全社会用电量、三大产业用电量、居民生活用电量、常住人口总数、人均可支配收入和地区生产总值单方程的联立方程模型。联立方程包含八个内生因子、三个外生因子和六个附加因子的联立方程模型。在参考安徽省"十三五"规划纲要的基础上,准确对外生变量进行赋值,详细预测了安徽省"十三五"期间和未来五年的全社会用电量和分类用电量的变化趋势和增长率。结果表明,安徽省全社会用电量将在2021年达到2575亿千瓦时,年均增长速度为7.52%;三大产业和居民生活用电量将分别达到26.7亿千瓦时、1505亿千瓦时、578.6亿千瓦时和463.9亿千瓦时,年均增长速度分别为6.77%、4.24%、18.27%和9.14%。

As the barometer of economy,which can effectively reflect the operation of the country＇s basic industry and the livelihood,the power of data is played as residents an important role of China＇s industrial life and electricity operation to accurately predict.Through to analyze the law of economic and electricity in Anhui Province,including total electricity consumption,three industrial electricity consumption,residents living consumption,resident population,per capita disposable income and GDP single simultaneous equation model.Considering the basis of Anhui province ＂13 th Five-Year＂ plan on the accurate assignment of the exogenous variables,the total electricity consumption and the classification with the change trend and the growth rate is predicted during 13 th Five-Year.The result shows that the total electricity consumption will reach 2575 billion kwh in 2021 years,an average annual growth rate of 7.52%; 3 industrial and residential electricity consumption will reach 26.7 billion kwh,1505 billion kwh,578.6 billion kWh and 463.9 billion kwh,annual average growth rate of 6.77%,4.24% 18.27% and 9.14%,respectively in Anhui Province.