市场化转型中的成品油市场现状及2018年展望

New Characteristics of Domestic Oil Products Market in 2018

2017年,在经济回暖拉动下,成品油消费有所改善,尤其是柴油消费增速由负转正。国内炼油能力增长主要来自于央企。炼油产业参与主体更为多元,市场活力不断增强,地方炼厂在进口原油使用权放开的政策利好下生产积极性持续高涨。油价回升、环保加严,天然气汽车、新能源汽车、煤制油和燃料乙醇等石油替代品发展均明显加快。同时,成品油市场化步伐稳步推进。展望2018年,宏观经济下行压力较大,加之汽车行业新政变化,不利于成品油市场需求增长。产能的增长将主要来自于大型地方炼厂。在国家深化成品油市场化改革的背景下,地方石油公司成立,原油政策保持宽松,成品油市场竞争加剧。

In 2017, driven by economic recovery, oil products consumption improved, especially with diesel fuel changed from negative to positive. Most of domestic refining capacity growth came from major refiners. Refining entities became more diversified, encouraged by increasing market vitality and the crude oil import right granted to independent refiners. The oil products market also witnessed rebounded oil price, more stringent environmental protection, and push for oil alternatives like natural gas and new energy vehicles, coal to oil and fuel alcohol, as well as steady advance in marketization. Looking into 2018, downward pressure of macro-economy and new policy changes in automobile industry will weigh on oil products demand. Capacity growth will mainly come from largescale independent refiners. Under the background of deepening market reform of oil products, the market will witness more independent refiners, crude oil policy remaining loose, and more intense competition.