基于层次分析法的铁路安全事故后果评价

Consequence Assessment of Railway Safety Accidents Based on AHP

介绍层次分析法的概念、适用范围、应用流程。鉴于铁路安全事故后果的复杂性,应用层次分析法对其分析和量化。以美国1996—2005年铁路事故为例,评判每年发生的铁路安全事故的后果,挖掘各年铁路安全事故后果分值高低与该年事故特点的联系,即通过一组数字直观地体现和综合地评判出铁路事故的损失情况,验证层次分析法对于铁路安全事故后果分析的有效性。为铁路相关管理监管部门制定安全运营工作方针提供依据。

The article introduces the concept,scope of application and application procedures for AHP. In view ofthe complexity in the consequences of railway safety accidents,it adopts AHP for its analysis and quantification.Taking the railway accidents during 1996 to 2005 in USA for example,the article judges the consequences of rail-way safety accidents taking place every year,unearths the relation between the ratings for the consequences of rail-way safety accidents every year and the accident features of that year,that is,to intuitively reflect and comprehen-sively judge the loss of railway accidents based on a group of numbers,thus validating the validity of AHP in analyz-ing the consequences of railway safety accidents. It finally can provide a basis for relevant competent authorities to de-velop a working policy of safe operation.