基于条件价值法的老年人热浪死亡风险受偿意愿研究

Willingness to accept compensation for heat wave mortality risk: evidence from contingent valuation study in elder people

目的获取热浪死亡风险受偿意愿并分析其影响因素。方法以随机抽样获取北京城(n=121)、郊(n=90)两区老年人样本,开展入户问卷调查。基于条件价值法,通过构建热浪死亡风险情景获取受偿意愿,同时拟合Tobit模型寻找影响城区和郊区老人受偿意愿(对数化的受偿金额)的关键因素,并计算边际效应量化影响关系。结果调查共获得有效问卷211份,其中90%以上提出受偿意愿,城区和郊区受偿水平的中位数分别为1 750元和2 000元。Tobit模型结果显示,性别、抚养儿童、政府应对热浪能力的信任度等因素对城区老人的受偿意愿影响有统计学意义(P<0.05);边际效应分析可见对受偿意愿影响较大的是抚养儿童,即抚养儿童将增加城区老人受偿意愿2.99(95%CI:0.89~5.09)倍;随着对政府应对热浪能力信任度的增加,城区老人受偿意愿降低(P<0.05)。年龄、性别和热浪健康危害的可接受度等因素对郊区老人受偿意愿影响具有统计学意义(P<0.05);边际效应较大的是性别,即郊区老年男性较当地女性的受偿意愿增加0.96(95%CI:0.03~1.88)倍;随着危害可接受度的增加,郊区老人受偿意愿降低(P<0.05)。结论本次调查的大部分老年人面对高温热浪死亡风险能够产生受偿意愿,受偿意愿在城、郊两区分布虽无统计学差异,但影响因素却不同,提示对城、郊两区老人采取的高温热浪适应性政策和防护性措施应因地制宜,同时关注人群热浪健康风险感知,提高居民应对热浪的能动性。

Objective To quantify the elder people willingness-to-accept（WTA） compensation for heat wave mortality risk and analyze determinants. Methods The elder people were chosen in urban and rural area of Beijing by random sampling and household interviews were conducted. Based on the contingent valuation approach, an extreme heat scenario were posed and WTA for risk compensation was dated. Tobit model was used to estimate the determinants of WTA. Marginal effect was adopted to quantify the relationships. Results A total of 211 effective questionnaires were obtained from subjects, more than 90%among them clearly posed positive WTA, and the medians of self-reported WTAs were 1 750 and 2 000 Yuan for urban and rural subjects respectively. According to Tobit model, urban WTA was affected by gender, raising children and trust perception of government respond to heat waves（P〈0.05）, and the marginal effect of raising children played a greater role which could increase 2.99（95%CI：0.89-5.09） times of urban sensitive-WTA. With the increase in trust perception, the amount of urban WTA decreased. Age, gender and acceptability of heat-wave health impacts were the determinants of rural WTA（P〈0.05）, and gender had greater impacts. The marginal effect of male would increase rural sensitive-WTA by 0.96（95%CI：0.03-1.88） times.With the increase in acceptability, the amount of rural WTA decreased. Conclusion Most of elder people pose positive WTA facing mortality risk of heat wave. There is no observed statistical difference between the distribution of urban and rural WTA but determinants. It is prompted that to develop heat-related adaptation and strategy should tailor to local conditions, moreover,to improve the concern for heat-wave health risk perception and the capacity of residents taking the initiative to adapt to heatwave.