货币政策不确定性损害了资金配置效率吗?——来自企业资本结构视角的经验证据

Is the Uncertainty of Monetary Policy Harmful to the Capital Allocation Efficiency?Evidence from Corporate Capital Structure

本文基于资本结构静态调整与动态调整双重视角,探讨了货币政策不确定性如何影响资金配置效率。研究发现：货币政策不确定性通过降低信贷供给,导致企业杠杆水平下降,而且加剧了市场摩擦,降低了资本结构调整的速度;结合信贷期限结构的分析,表明上述结果主要是长期信贷供给减少所致。此外,结合融资约束与投资机会的探讨,深入说明了货币政策不确定性对企业资本结构的影响主要由供给主导。本文研究表明货币政策不确定性加剧了市场摩擦,是导致资金配置效率低下的原因之一,同时也强调加强货币政策预期管理、促进货币政策平稳调整,对于提升资金配置效率、落实供给侧结构性改革具有重要的借鉴意义。

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on capital allocation efficiency in the view of leverage adjustment. In the static view, corporate leverage is reducing with the uncertainty of monetary policy because of the lower supply of bank loan. In the dynamic view, the adjustment speed of leverage is decreasing because the uncertainty of monetary policy makes the market friction increased. Further study with loan maturity shows the decrease of leverage is mainly driven by the lower supply of long-term loan. Moreover, analysis with financial constraints and growth opportunity shows that the impact of monetary policy uncertainty is dominated certainty o{ monetary policy ma b Y y the supply side. This study not only suggests that the un- be one of the reasons that results in the inefficiency of capital allocation, but also emphasizes the importance of expectation management of monetary poli cy, which may make great significance to the reform of supply side.